 The sleeping beauty problem....?
We plan to put Beauty to sleep by chemical means, and then we'll flip a (fair) coin. If the coin lands Heads, we will awaken Beauty on Monday afternoon and interview her. If it lands Tails, we will awaken her Monday afternoon, interview her, put her back to sleep, and then awaken her again on Tuesday afternoon and interview her again.The (each?) interview is to consist of the one question: what is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed Heads?When awakened (and during the interview) Beauty will not be able to tell which day it is, nor will she remember whether she has been awakened before.She knows the above details of our experiment.What credence should she state in answer to our question? Is the answer 1/2 or 1/3? |